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Below you will find an article from today's Austin American Statesman:
When Richard Moya was elected Travis County's first Hispanic commissioner in 1970, support from mostly Hispanic neighborhoods of Precinct 4 was crucial to his victory. Forty years later, Moya says voter turnout in the traditionally Latino areas of Southeast Austin is a fraction of what it was in that historic race.
Instead, the predominantly Anglo neighborhoods of Bouldin and Travis Heights have become the key to victory in the majority Latino precinct. As Tuesday's election approaches, the campaigns of Margaret Gomez, the more-than-15-year commissioner running for re-election, and her challenger, former Austin City Council Member Raul Alvarez, say they are campaigning throughout the precinct, but they also acknowledge the importance of those South Austin neighborhoods, where voter turnout has been higher in recent elections than in heavily Latino neighborhoods, such as Dove Springs.
"Even though this is a Hispanic, minority seat, guess who elects them? The white folks in 78704," said local political consultant Mark Littlefield, referring to the ZIP code roughly bounded by Lady Bird Lake, Interstate 35, MoPac Boulevard (Loop 1) and West Ben White Boulevard.
Very few Hispanic households remain in South Austin neighborhoods like Bouldin, city demographer Ryan Robinson said. The neighborhood has gentrified rapidly and is now a mix of 1920s bungalows and contemporary condominiums. A commercial heart of the neighborhood, South First Street, is still home to Tex-Mex and Mexican restaurants, but they now sit alongside coffee shops and vintage clothing stores.
The median family income has increased steeply in both Bouldin and Travis Heights, reflecting the demographic shift, Robinson said.
By contrast, Robinson called Dove Springs, south of East Ben White Boulevard, the city's "largest, truest barrio," saying it's majority Latino with large, multigenerational, working-class families. In 2000, 75 percent of Dove Springs households were Latino, and Robinson expects this year's census to show a greater percentage. But voter turnout there is low.
Littlefield said that Tuesday's Democratic primary won't be like the one in 2008, when turnout was high and Texas was crucial in the race between then-presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
It'll be more like 2006, he said, when Gómez faced Yolanda Montemayor in the Democratic primary and won with more than 57 percent of the vote. Then, voter turnout was higher in Bouldin and Travis Heights than in Dove Springs and Govalle, another heavily Latino and working-class neighborhood in East Austin, Robinson said.
Littlefield estimates that the number of voters this year will total between 3,000 and 4,000, representing about 3 percent of registered voters in Precinct 4, which has had the lowest voter turnout countywide in recent years.
Both the Gomez and Alvarez campaigns say that regardless of voting trends, they are reaching out to every corner of Precinct 4.
A "Dove Springs vote counts just as much as a 78704" vote, said David Mauro, a consultant with G?mez's campaign. "Every single vote is going to matter. We're not going to only focus on 78704. ... Those that do don't understand the dynamics of the district."
"You have to maintain an awareness of the higher turnout areas, but we're absolutely committed to reaching out to every voter in every community in Precinct 4," said Billy Stallings, Alvarez's campaign manager.
Moya's election followed the redrawing of precinct lines to form a majority Hispanic district, according to Littlefield and Moya. The Hispanic vote previously was split between two precincts, and the redrawn lines brought more Hispanic voters to Precinct 4 and galvanized the local Latino community to elect one of its own, Littlefield and Moya said.
Since then, the seat has always been held by Hispanics — Moya served 16 years, followed by Hank Gonzalez for four years, then Marcos DeLe?n for four years and G?mez, who began serving in 1995. Moya agrees that Anglo voters decide the seat today.
In the 1970 runoff between Moya and then-longtime incumbent Lawson Boothe, however, Moya recalled that 42 percent turned out to vote in the Govalle precinct and that the voters were predominantly Hispanic. (In the 2006 Democratic primary, 4 percent of registered voters in Govalle turned out to vote.)
Littlefield said that the turnout among Hispanics was high when Moya first ran because it was their first opportunity to elect a Hispanic to the Commissioners Court. Since then, electing Hispanics to the seat has become common practice, he said.
Moya also notes that though Hispanics used to live mostly in pockets of Precinct 4, they are now spread out all over Austin. "We're losing that (ability to) say, 'This is a Hispanic box.'
"Here's the deal: If Anglos don't run, they have to vote for a Hispanic candidate or not vote at all," Moya said, adding that a few Anglos have tried to run for the seat but have been unsuccessful.
"Like this time, Margaret Gomez and Raul Alvarez are the only two candidates on the ballot," Moya said. "If you live in Travis County Precinct 4, you're going to vote for a Hispanic commissioner or not vote at all."
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